Thursday, October 6, 2011

Predicting the NHL 2011-12 Season

Tonight the hockey season is back in full swing!  It seems like it has been much longer than it actually has since we watched the Bruins shut down the Canucks to take the Cup home in a final deciding game 7 this past spring.  It has been even longer still since I've seen my beloved Avs play.  That changes tonight though with the start of the NHL season and then Saturday the Avalanche open their season against the hated Red Wings as they retire Peter Forsberg's number, a game which I will be able to attend.

As with last year I want to take a moment prior to the first game of the season to make some pointless and likely way off base prediction as to how the NHL season will play off.  I will start in the East then go to the West predicting the final standings and I'll add a brief thought or two about each team.  Without further delay, here we go!


EASTERN CONFERENCE
1- Washington Capitals : Is Vokoun the buy to put them over the top?  In my opinion no, but that is because goaltending hasn't been bad prior to this year and the team just hasn't finished out the season.  I see that changing this year, and while Vokoun will be a big part of a great season he won't be "the piece".

2- Pittsburgh Penguins : The key question in Pitt is the health of their two stars.  If Crosby can return early and Malkin has a dominant year look out for this team.  If Crosby can't return and Malkin struggles they will still be good, but won't return to the Finals.

3- Buffalo Sabres : Ryan Miller has been the guy to carry this team, but this year they have added pieces to help him along and Enroth emerging should keep him fresh.

4- Philadelphia Flyers : Will the changes in Philly work out?  That is the question most are asking after the overhaul this offseason.  They still have loads of talent and now have a very solid goalie as well though.  However losing two of their top offensive talents will hurt at some point.

5- Tampa Bay Lightning : I'm not convinced that Roloson is going to be able to carry the team for the entire season as he gets up there in years, but there is tons of talent in Tampa and they will make the playoffs.

6- Boston Bruins : The team that won the cup last year is mostly intact and they have a great goaltending duo.  They will win consistently enough and will be a team to challenge again this year, but they will have down moments as well and won't have home ice in the first round.

7- NY Rangers : With the addition or Richards the Rangers have a potent top line, and with Lundqvist they have a great goalie.  However health will be a question with the oft-injured Gaborik and with Staal already out to begin the season.

8- Montreal Canadians : The Canadians will follow Price once again, and if he plays well the team will do well.  If he doesn't the team will struggle.

9- NJ Devils : The Devils struggled early last year, but they will start of stronger this year.  Brodeur may be aging but he'll still get it done as long as the team in front of him can remain healthy.  A stronger start may not be enough though.

10- Carolina Hurricanes : The team will contend until the last few weeks but will fall short of the playoffs.

11- NY Islanders : The Islanders have a great pool of young talent and are definitely headed the right direction.  They aren't quite there yet but they aren't far off either.

12- Toronto Maple Leafs : Is the goaltending in Toronto good enough?  I'm not sold on it, nor am I sold that the rest of the team is going to pull it all together either.  They have some decent pieces especially on the blue line but could use help up front.

13- Florida Panthers : How will all the moves work out in Florida?  The team went through a complete overhaul with a majority of the players changing this offseason.  They brought in some good talent and some that may not be as good as they paid for, but they also have some great young talent.  If Theo struggles which I think he will, we'll likely see Markstrom become the main guy in Florida.  The future looks good from a talent standpoint, but this year won't be their year.

14- Winnapeg Jets : How will the move work out?  Obviously the fans are there and will be for the near future, but what if the team struggles?  They may ride a bit of a high to start the season but the extended travel and a talent base that is needing some pieces will take their toll and the team will struggle.

15- Ottawa Senators : The Senators are going to be a contender in coming years.  They have one of the strongest talent bases in their prospect pool, but that won't do them much this year.  The team could ride Anderson in goal like Colorado did they year they made the playoffs and finish higher up, but they will have struggles too and all too often.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
1- Vancouver Canucks : Given the weakest of the three divisions and that the team remains largely intact from last season Vancouver should be able to win the conference again this season.  They have a huge amount talent and have a great chance of returning to the Finals this year.

2- Los Angeles Kings : The Kings have one of the strongest rosters from front to back and only got stronger this offseason. Quick and Bernier

3- Chicago Blackhawks : With a strong goaltending duo and a solid team front to back the Blackhawks will be a strong contender this year.

4- Detroit Red Wings : They seem to come back each and every year despite comments that they are getting older.  They lost Rafalski but still have some of the best talent in the game and some of the best coaching as well.  This year will be no different than the past as they will roll with the roster changes and be right there in the end.

5- San Jose Sharks : Injury problems in goal slow them at first but they have tons of talent and have added some good pieces in the offseason at the cost of a couple other pieces.  This team is going to be right in the race for the division lead at the end and could find themselves thinking this is the year they get over the playoff frustrations of years past.

6- Anaheim Ducks : Will Hiller stay healthy?  That is the biggest question in the Ducks season.  If Hiller can stay healthy the Ducks will have another good season but if his health becomes an issue can the Ducks overcome that?  They have good forwards and a defense that played above expectations last year, but the season could revolve around Hiller.

7- St. Louis Blues : St. Louis missed some pieces last year due to injury and a few others didn't play to their capabilities.  This will be a different year though and a better year from Halak, healthy forwards with the addition of Stewart, and the addition of Shattenkirk to a pretty strong blueline already and the Blues are primed for a return to the playoffs.

8- Nashville Predators : This team just seems to play within themselves every night and find a way to make the playoffs each year.  Part of me thinks this is the year that they fall out of the playoffs, but I can't bet against them and put Colorado or Columbus here instead.

9- Colorado Avalanche : I am not in the club that the Avalanche have handed the Caps a lottery pick, nor am I sold on the price paid for Varlamov either.  I will say however that the goaltending is much stronger and seeing the bigger blueline is nice though I question where the offense will come from back there.  The forward depth is pretty good this year, but as with the last few years the biggest question will be health.  Will the injury bug continue to plague the Avs best?  I hope not and think the changes will help them compete but fall just short.

10- Columbus Blue Jackets : The Jackets got a great piece from Philly, but is that going to be enough?  Mason had a great rookie season but I think that last season is what we'll see more of this year and from that this team will have its struggles.

11- Calgary Flames : The Flames finished strong last year and they could play that way again this year and challenge for a playoff spot.  However many of their players are aging and the team will have its struggles too often to be in the fight at the end.

12- Minnesota Wild : The Wild brought in a couple of good guys but also lost a couple of good guys.  They have a good goalie but I don't believe they improved as much this past season as they needed to in order to improve in the standings.

13- Edmonton Oilers : The Oilers have a great group of young forwards but do they have the defense and goaltending to win regularly?  I think that is where the team falls short but they have a bright future once those areas are addressed and they don't have to outscore teams 5-4 every night.

14- Dallas Coyotes : What effect will losing Richards have on this team?  In my opinion they still have some talented players but that is a big loss and I thought they weren't a 9th place team last year.

15- Phoenix Coyotes : Some people say that you can't drop the Coyotes that far just because they lost Bryzgalov.  I would agree but the guys they brought in aren't going to be able to keep the Coyotes close like he would have, so I can't.  It could be a long season in the desert.


So if things work out the way I see them the playoffs would start as such:
Washington vs. Montreal
Pittsburgh vs. NY Rangers
Buffalo vs. Boston
Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay

Vancouver vs. Nashville
Los Angeles vs. St Louis
Chicago vs. Anaheim
Detroit vs. San Jose

...and I'll predict that this year we will see the San Jose Sharks lose in 6 games to the Washington Capitals.

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