Today I am going to pull out my crystal ball and predict the future. What is the potential Avalanche lineup in the season of 2014-15? That is the answer I am going to try to get to using just the current roster and the players in the system. Obviously this will leave a few spaces that will be occupied by free agent signings so my roster won't be 100% correct, but I am going to look at the prospects coming through the system and touch on what I realistically expect of them, then using that present a roster for the team three years from now.
I will also have to look at the current roster as well, but I will only touch on those pieces in creating the final picture as much of this will focus on the prospects coming up through the system. I'll start from the forwards and work my way back towards goal in my efforts, and beyond that there won't be a real order to the players that I put forth.
You will see references to a hockey prospects site that I visit from time to time called hockeysfuture.com, but other than using them as a reference point the opinions given will be mine. You will see "grades" that this website gave to many of the prospects, but as they haven't updated them in the last year nor given this year's draftees a grade I will mention them, but also give my thoughts on what they are likely to be this year or should be. The grade is a number 1 through 10 ranking potential with 10 being a generational talent going down to AHL star at 5, so the grades will be between there, and then a letter where 'A' represents the likelihood a player will reach that level and each grade below that the player is less likely to reach that level. Thus a player that is a 8B is said to have potential to reach 1st line status and likely could but could end up as a second liner. Of course the grades are educated guesses on their part, but for further explanation of them check here ... http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections/
Gabriel Landeskog will start my list of forwards that have a future with the team. The Swedish winger taken 2nd overall in this past year's draft isn't yet graded by HF, but I would imagine that he will be graded an 8.0B. I think this is pretty accurate. The most NHL ready in the draft, he will likely find himself playing in Denver already this year. In fact his former team is so sure of it they already released his rights. He plays a skilled power forward type game but is a complete two way player. Some question his offensive upside but no one is said to have more character coming into this draft. The first European captain for the Kitchner Rangers in their history, he is a leader and will likely one day wear a letter for the Avs. My hopes are that he becomes a top line winger for many, many years and he certainly can reach that level, but at the very least I expect him to be a 2nd line guy who plays a complete game and is a leader for the team.
Next up I'll move on to Joey Hishon, last year's first round draft pick. HF gave him a rating of 7.5C, which puts him with potential to be between a 2nd and 1st liner but also questions his potential to get there. Personally I think that he has to play in the top 6 or at worst top 9 to be effective. He's a talented scoring forward without great size, but he does have an injury history also, so I think the revised number might be an 8.0C for him when the new rankings come out. However there are lots of questions about Hishon's health, and even now reports state that he has felt "off" from his last concussion while still training this summer. While he was a center before, to make the jump to the Avs he'll have to make a switch to wing as well most likely with the Avalanche being strong down the middle with young talent already. In the end I see him as likely a second line scoring winger down the road ... if he can stay healthy.
Ryan Stoa, a winger who has had a few chances to show his worth in the NHL already, is next up and is ranked a 7.0C but I wouldn't be surprised to see that drop to a 7.0D. This likely could be his last to try to make the Avalanche as to this point he hasn't shown what he needs to in order to make the big club. A lack of drive, speed, and physical play despite his size leave me wondering if he has what it takes. I don't see him as part of the team's future unless he does something this season that he hasn't shown in the past few.
Mark Olver, like Stoa, is rated a 7.0C as well but with him I see more drive and scoring touch. He got some time with the Avs and played well, but in the future his size might be his limiting factor. I think he'll stick before Stoa and could be a third line energy guy with spot duty on the second line, however I think that he'll find himself a job on another team at some point in the future. It isn't that he doesn't have what it takes, just that I don't think it will be with Colorado.
Justin Mercier(6.0C) is a high energy guy who may be able to chip in a bit here and there but is really a guy I see that tops out at the third line. All teams need those guys in the bottom 6 though and Mercier could fill that role well.
Brad Malone was also a 6.0C, but he may move up half a notch to a 6.5C. He's got size and has been productive the last couple of years, taking jumps in points each of the last two seasons. He could end up being an ideal 3rd or 4th liner for the Avalanche a year or two down the road. He could continue to develop and be a late bloomer who shows the ability to one day get some 2nd line time, but he is likely to top out as a third liner.
There are some other prospects in the system as well, however many of them I don't see having much of a future with the Avalanche. Of course there will always be surprises and I could be wrong, and I hope they all prove to have successful careers, but those above are the players likely to have the biggest impact on the team forwards as things sit now.
Moving back to defense I'll start things off with this year's WHL Defenseman of the Year Stefan Elliot. Rated a 7.5C by HF, I imagine that could rise to an 8.0C this year. Elliot has great offensive skills from the blueline and is developing defensive skills and leadership skills as well. He could very well become a first pairing offensive defenseman for the club, but will likely be a 2nd pairing, 1st powerplay unit, guy sitting behind Erik Johnson. However he will contribute at the next level and may see some playing time as early as this year, perhaps even making the team out of camp.
Next up will be the runner up to Elliot and the previous year's WHL Defenseman of the Year winner Tyson Barrie. Rated a 7.0C by HF, who actually has him as the 4th best defensive prospect on the club before Seimens is figured in even, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small increase in that given the high level of play he has had the last two years. However when it comes to what he'll be for the Avalanche I think he'll top off as a 2nd line, 2nd PP pairing guy who will likely end up playing a number of third line minutes with EJ and Elliot ahead of him on the depth charts.
The 7.0B rating given to Cameron Gaunce is a fair one in my opinion. Not a flashy player by any means he is a well rounded defenseman who will be a good bottom pairing guy. He may get spot duty in the 2nd pairing but likely will be that 3rd pairing guy who provides valuable minutes.
Joel Chouinard, rated a 7.5C, is an offensive defenseman who was again having another productive season last year, this one his first in the AHL, though it was shortened by injury. The depth and quality of offensive defenseman prospects the Avalanche has is a good thing for the club but the logjam it creates may not be for the prospects. Chouinard is a guy that could top out as a second pairing offensive defenseman but where does he fit on the squad? At some point someone is likely to be moved but who would be any one's guess, but it could be Chouinard. If he remains with the club though it will likely be as someone who gets 3rd line minutes with 2nd line duty at times, perhaps even getting power play time.
Jonas Holos (7.0C) saw some time with the Avalanche last year and many fans weren't sure why he was sent back to the AHL. During his time in Denver he was a reliable bottom pairing guy who gave solid, unspectacular play. Despite the occasional mistake he showed that he could play in the NHL and will likely get call up duty at times this year. However where he fits on the team going forward is in question and he likely will see his career continue elsewhere on a team with room for him. He'll be good in Lake Erie until then, and be a good bottom pairing guy in the NHL when he gets his chance.
The last defenseman I'll touch on will be Duncan Siemens, drafted 11th overall this past draft. He'll likely be a 7.0 or 7.5C for HF when they rate him and that is about what I would expect. Elliot's defensive partner these past couple of years he could eventually find himself in that position again in a few years as a 2nd pairing guy for the Avalanche. The more defensive of the two, he is the defensive defenseman who is big and physical and will be used to shutdown other teams. He and Elliot could make a great 2nd pairing some day and that is where I see Siemens.
Again as with forwards there are some other defensemen who could make impressions but those are the ones that I feel have the best chance of having a future with the club. Unlike the 12/13 spots for forwards there are only 6/7 spots for defensemen on the roster and the club has a number of talented defensemen who look to compete for those spots in coming years.
Moving back to goal the acquisition of Semyon Varlamov changes the Avalanche landscape greatly. He will likely be the goalie for the Avalanche for many years unless he flops or becomes injured so the starting goalie position is penciled in now where it wasn't prior to July 1 this year. However with that being said the Avalanche do have a couple of guys in the pipeline with potential to make impressions down the road.
Calvin Pickard (7.5C) tops that list. Playing behind a horrible team in Seattle he has been the workhorse for them playing tons of minutes and facing nearly 40 shots a game while doing so. Even under that he has performed very well and shows great promise and a great mental fortitude. Goalies always take longer to develop but it will be very interesting to see what he can do once he finally has a better team in front of him, though I believe that he'll be in Seattle again this year. Down the road I could see him challenging for the #1 spot or being a very solid backup at least.
The other three goaltenders that I would put at the top of the list for shots with the Avalanche, though given the length of time it takes for goalies to develop and the uncertainty behind them in their early careers could change this drastically, are Kent Patterson (7.0C), Sami Aittokallio(7.0D), and newcomer Cedric Desjardins(7.0C). All are relatively young in their careers and all are taking different routes, one through the NCAA, one through European leagues, and the other through the CHL. Each at this time look like they could be capable back-ups in the NHL but aren't bluechip prospects. They will each have time to develop and show their worth, though where they end up will remain to be seen.
As for the current roster you will see a number of young, key pieces that make a solid core to the team and that should be around for some time. Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene, and Ryan O'Reilly are a strong trio of centers for many years to come and Stastny at 25 is the oldest of the bunch. The blueline will be led by 23 year old Erik Johnson, while Varlamov will be counted on to be the key to the goaltending future for the Avalanche after having given up two high draft picks for him this last offseason. He is also only 23 currently.
With the youth the team has and the young talent coming up through the system, the below could be similar to what the Avalanche roster may look at when the season begins just three years from now. The age that they will be at that time follows their names.
Peter Mueller(26)-Matt Duchene(23)-Joey Hishon(22)
Gabriel Landeskog(21)-Paul Stastny(28)-David Jones(30)
TJ Galliardi(26)-Ryan O'Reilly(23)-Danniel Winnik(29)
Justin Mercier(27)-Brad Malone(25)-Chuck Kobasew(32)
Kevin Porter(28)/Mark Olver(26)
Eric Johnson(26)-Kyle Quincey(29)
Jan Hejda(36)-Stefan Elliot(23)
Tyson Barrie(23)-Ryan O'Byrne(30)
Joel Chouinard(24)/Cameron Gaunce(24)
Semyon Varlamov(26)
Calvin Pickard(22)
Obviously that won't be exact as it doesn't take into account any future draft picks that may surprise, doesn't take in any free agents, and doesn't account for trades. Those are just players in the system or playing now. Even then there are players that were left off such as O'Brien n defense who will be around 30 at that time and could still be in Denver. Ryan Wilson is another that isn't on there and he'll only be 27. Siemens could be in the AHL given that he'll have just turned 20but perhaps he'll surprise and be paired with Elliot as early as that year.
The forwards have a number of current Avs such as McCleod and Yip missing from the list as well. Another name not there is Hejduk who will be 38 at the time, and if he hasn't retired he will likely be playing on the second line still. Other guys like Lindstrom could also be around then, and there are question marks with health there too, especially with Mueller who missed all last year with a concussion and Jones who finally managed to have a healthy season just this last year.
Overall I think that is a pretty solid lineup in 3 years time and a pretty young one as well with only 4 of the 24 players being 30 years old or older. Depending on the health of the players, especially the pair mentioned just a bit ago, the team could use a good scoring top 6 winger or two by then ... and of course predicting the future for any player is not a science but a guessing game, but to me I like the looks of the future Avalanche squad. I'll be looking forward to seeing those players develop and seeing how close I am in who makes the squad and in what roles as time passes.
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