Tonight and tomorrow night the second game of the conference finals will be played so there are at least 10 more games to be played to find our champion in the NHL this season (and potentially as many as 19 games). As such it might be considered being a bad fan to be looking forward to and talking about the NHL draft coming up in June this early. However the Avalanche have long been out of it and as such being an Avalanche fan I fully embrace the upcoming draft as the team looks for more pieces to get it back to the finals in the future ... and I can do so while enjoying what has been some great playoff hockey thus far. (Go Sharks! ...can't stand the Nucks...)
It has only been in the past few years, in fact the year that the Avalanche finished 28th in the league and drafted Matt Duchene, that I began getting interested in the draft itself. However since that time my interest in the prospects and the draft have grown and each year I look forward to it once the season is winding down and ending. Not more than the hockey itself, but quite a bit. In this post I'll talk about why I enjoy the draft so much, and a part of that will be the differences in the NHL draft versus the NFL draft (the only other one that I really have any experience with or that really means anything) and part of that will address the challenges that scouts and teams face when drafting.
One of the exciting things about the draft for me is the potential for your team to be picking up a big piece of your team's future. They could find someone that will fill a hole down the road, they could find a star in the league ... or the prospect could bust. One of the major differences in the NHL draft as opposed to the NFL draft is you really are drafting for the future, not for the present. Only a handful of draft picks actually play in the NHL the year they are drafted (I believe the average has been around 6 the past few years) and most are a few years from making an impact in the league. Compare that to the NFL where the players are generally a few years older and are expected to step in and either be starters or challenge for jobs right away.
The route that draft picks generally take is a long one, normally returning to their junior teams for another few seasons, or to their teams in the international leagues, or they are off to college for a few years. After that they often find themselves in the AHL for a season or two as they continue to grow, and then they may get their shot at the big show. The length of time in the minors depends on the player development and the team needs generally. A player faster to develop will obviously move up faster, but a team that has a position filled will generally have a "logjam" which blocks a players ability to come up until injuries or trades or expiring contracts make room. The fact that players are a few years away generally is another reason why the draft is fun, because you don't really know what the future will bring and watching the prospects develop is a fun activity and surprises are always to be had.
Another level of the draft that is enjoyable is that players come from all over. When you look at the NFL draft everyone comes from college football. When you look at the NHL draft you have not only college hockey but also Canadian junior leagues and there are a handful of those, minor hockey leagues in the US, Russian leagues, Swedish leagues, and so on and so forth. It is truly a world game, and if you look at the Hockey News top 100 for this years draft there are 9 or 10 countries represented on that list and a dozen or better leagues.
I have read the Future Considerations and Hockey News draft guides the past couple of years, and last year added McKeens. This year I'll get the first two but the last one isn't getting produced this year for some reason, so instead I'm going to pick up the IIS guide (despite the added expense I thought it would be worth checking out since the International Scouting Service rankings get referred to a lot). I truly enjoy reading about the prospects coming up through the pipeline and who might be worth looking at in the next few years, and while some guides are basic and only touch on players others are more in depth. They try to tell you who those players will develop into, but each year there are those that won't reach their potential and those that are late bloomers and will come out of no where. Trying to get a read on who is who and watching them grow (mostly for your team but others can be fun to keep an eye on as well) is truly enjoyable for me.
The Avalanche got lucky a couple of seasons ago, though perhaps not that lucky as they have shown to be great drafters of late, having not just Duchene but their second round pick O'Reilly both start for them in their draft year. That is pretty rare but was exciting. Last year they picked someone that shocked everyone, Joey Hishon, because he was expected to go in the 2nd round instead of the middle of the first but he has developed well this year and looks to be a good pick. Elliot and Barrie are a couple of guys that have been coming along and could make the show next year, just as Shattenkirk did this year after a few years of watching him develop in college (and then get traded ... grr).
Personally I love hockey, but I also love the draft and learning about the players coming up and keeping an eye on them leading up to the draft and then after the draft to see how they progress. This year the Avalanche have a pair of high picks, #2 and 11, and then nothing until the fourth round unless they make some trades, so I'm excited to see what they do with those and who joins the team's prospect ranks. I'll have more on that later on, but I am certainly excited to see who could be a future Av.
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