Friday, June 10, 2011

Where Could the NHL Go?

With Atlanta currently losing their team to Winnipeg and with Phoenix being rumored for a couple years now as a team that could also potentially move if ownership issues aren't solved I began thinking about where I would consider putting NHL teams.  At first I thought about just taking all 30 teams off the board and replacing all 30, something I still might do down the road in another post, but for now I'm just going to take a look at a map and throw out 10 or so cities that I think should be (or could have been) considered for NHL teams.  Keep in mind while reading this that I fully believe hockey in Atlanta would have succeeded had ownership ever put a good team on the ice that would have had some success and even as it was the fan base wasn't as bad as some claim anyway with decent attendance given the product on ice every year.

Quebec : This city already had a franchise which became the Colorado Avalanche.  However there is certainly a great deal of interest from the city and the people there to get a team back.  At the time the American dollar and the economy, along with no Cap, made the business side of hockey in Quebec nearly impossible leading to the sale of the team.  However with both dollars near the same value and with a cap in place which promotes parity around the league Quebec could likely support a team once again.  It is also a decent distance from any other team, but it would become the team furthest Northeast and adds another team in the overall region.

Seattle : Yes a team in Seattle would be just across the border from Vancouver and it could suffer to some extent from Nucks fans swarming in to get Seattle tickets, however I still think there would be many benefits to a team in Seattle especially if the local people were given first crack at tickets.  The population in Seattle is pretty good and other than Vancouver there aren't any other teams remotely close.  A team in Seattle would give the Northwestern US a team from the United States they could cheer for and the proximity to Vancouver would likely result in a natural rivalry for the fans of the two cities.

San Diego : This one is more of a "if there weren't already three teams in California" pick.  I'm not extremely familiar with the population density or layout of California, I'll admit, but it seems to me that Anaheim and Los Angeles are a bit close for two teams to be.  Having one in San Diego instead would have spread out the fan bases a bit more and San Diego certainly has the population to support a team.  However where all three teams in California are successful where they are perhaps the NHL didn't do too bad in placing the California teams.

Austin/San Antonio : Could a second team in Texas work?  There is a population there, and a natural fan rivalry could be had with the Stars, but is the interest there?  I think the cities are large enough to support a team but would there be enough migration from being Stars fans to these cities to make it work.  They aren't right next door, but they are close and after years of following one team it may be hard to convert to another even if they are in your city.

Oklahoma City/Kansas City : I would go with Kansas City to start with especially where they already have an arena capable of holding a team, but Oklahoma City isn't bad location wise either.  Either location puts hockey where it isn't currently though KC is close to St. Louis being just across the state.  Both locations could bring in new fans and KC/StL or OKC/Dallas could become rivals.  These cities, much like Atlanta though, I would think would need a good product in the early years to draw in those fans.  Failure to ice a good team for many years could cause these cities to suffer the same fate as Atlanta.

Las Vegas : This is one of those boom/bust type locations for the NHL.  First Las Vegas I have heard is sort of like Detroit in that life there isn't that great.  If true, and given that Detroit doesn't even sell out their building as the self proclaimed "Hockeytown", that could be bad for the NHL there.  However Las Vegas also could be the greatest location available anywhere for bringing new fans into the game.  Given the amount of people that travel to the city every week there will always be the chance for random people looking for things to do to attend their first game.  This is both good and bad in itself.  The good is obviously new fans that will go back and spread the love of the game.  The bad is that the home team would likely have a smaller "home team feel" because of the lack of devoted interest in the team overall beyond a handful of fans who live there.  There would also be a lack of atmosphere likely as having a number of people attending each game with no rooting interest won't fill the building with the noise of a rabid fan base.  Overall it would be a big gamble for the NHL to go to Vegas, one that could pay off big or one that could blow up in their faces ... much like Vegas for any gambler.

New Orleans/Jackson/Montgomery : There is a bit of a whole in that South central/South Eastern area of the US where there isn't a team right now, especially with Atlanta moving out of the area.  There is definitely enough people down there where a good team could bring in a pretty good fan base.  However they could go poorly like Atlanta with bad ownership and a bad product.  Good ownership and a team worth following is a huge key in getting fan bases built in non-standard hockey markets and these would certainly fall into that category.

Indianapolis : This city is large enough to host a team, has a good fan base (though mostly Colts fans), and is in a location that it could draw its own fans.  It is also located between a number of teams that could provide good rivalries, including Columbus which could serve to give that city a rival and help that team out as well.  It is also in a location that provides easy travel to other large cities and from other cities around Indy which will promote rivalries, bring in new fans, and allow the team to grow and succeed in that market much easier than if it were the only city of any size within hundreds of miles.

I think there are a number of locations that NHL hockey could succeed and even thrive in, however it is key that a quality product is put on the ice within a few years of the move and that the management team is a good one and committed to winning and the team and fans.  Poor management that skimps on salaries and only ices the bare minimum and thus isn't going to win isn't going to win over any fan base, and that would be true in nearly every market that exists today even.  For proof of this just look to Denver where success early formed a great fan base, however even now as the team struggles the city fails to fill a building which once sold out hundreds of games in a row.  The fans remain but for a team to finish bottom 3 in the league two of the last three years they find it difficult to fill the seats. 

Now having said all this I don't really want to see any teams move and didn't want to see Atlanta move, nor do I want to see the NHL expand to more teams at least not at this time.  However should something happen these are some options that I think are worth looking at personally.

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