With the NHL season now wrapped up with the Bruins hoisting the Stanley Cup it is now time to start looking at next season. That starts first with the draft which just happens to be this weekend. The draft represents a chance for the clubs to grab pieces of their futures and this year Colorado will have a couple of high draft picks to add to their future with the 2nd and 11th overall picks, even though the draft doesn't appear as strong as in some past years.
With this post I'm going to first take a look at the organizational needs of the Avalanche, then take a look at some of the players that may be available with those picks and discuss what I think about the Avalanche could do, and finally bring up some potential trade scenarios that have been talked about as well. Before I get going though I want to mention that http://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/ has become a favorite blog of mine with great information and their blogs along with many other sites on the internet (and draft guides I have bought) have been a great source of my information.
A quick look at the Avalanche, and not just the current team but also the system and the prospects they currently have right now, and it can be seen that the system could use players in nearly every position right now so while teams generally always choose the best player available at the draft, especially where you're drafting for the future and not the present, there is certainly no reason for the Avalanche to deviate from that philosophy this year.
In the forward ranks the Avs have a lot of young talent up front. However injuries certainly highlighted that depth on the wings especially is lacking and the team could use some more high end top 6 talent in the pipeline. They are set at center for 10 years barring injury right now, but wings are an area of weakness. Size and toughness in the forward position would also be nice after trading Stewart away and with Ryan Stoa not developing as people had hoped and with few other top line talents that have any size or toughness.
On defense the team could use top line talent despite the acquisition of Erik Johnson. They do have a number of offensively skilled guys coming up through the system to play on the backend, but they could still use more gritty, tough guys and shutdown type defenders as well. Defense is also an area of weakness on the big club and some of the current prospects could certainly find time in Denver this coming year.
In goal the Avalanche currently don't have a goalie signed for next season and don't have anyone ready in the system. There are a couple of good prospects coming along, however the Avalanche are likely going to be looking to bring in a goalie for a couple of years at least and could use a blue chip prospect between the pipes at some time though they aren't likely to draft one this year.
Overall going into the draft the Avalanche find themselves in good shape with offensive minded defensemen and are strong down the middle on the big club, but could really use help everywhere else. Wings and solid top line or shutdown defensemen should be a priority in this draft, assuming they are the best player available of course. Luckily for the Avalanche they will be able to bring in a couple of prospects in the first 11 picks, barring trades, of this year's draft that could help to add to areas of weakness.
Let's look first at the players that I would think the Avalanche would consider at the #2 pick. There are probably five guys that can be considered in that spot, however I really think it comes down to just three once the Avs are on the clock. The other two are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, which everyone expects Edmonton to take first overall so should be gone already and if not the Avalanche have to consider taking him right there, and Sean Couturier who at one time was the top ranked prospect but has been overtaken by others and likely is now more in the 4-7 range of draft picks than the 1-4 range.
We'll start out with someone that I have come to hope for, however I'm a bit nervous about it as well. Gabriel Landeskog is a kid with tons and tons of intangibles, great character, leadership, and skill. He became the captain of the Kitchner Rangers, the first European to ever do so for the team, at the age of 17. He battles hard every shift, has great offensive skill, and is a pure heart and character guy. A couple of the knocks on him are that he doesn't have the greatest top end speed and his offensive top end might not be as high as a couple of the other guys in the draft ranked below him, and those things make me nervous about this pick because at #2 you should be getting a core player for your team's future. However some say he's a solid top end player who will translate well and contribute at a high level in all areas of the ice and will someday be a captain in the NHL and is the kind of player every team needs to win a cup. Combine that with the fact that he is said to be NHL ready, plays the wing which the Avalanche could use, and is a physical player as well which is also something the Avalanche need and I would be very happy to see him on the team.
Next up is another player that could very well fill a big hole for the Avalanche, this one being on the blueline with a top line two-way guy in Adam Larsson. Larsson has drawn some comparisons to Lidstrom, one of the greatest ever, however I think those are way overboard. They started when a coach of his stated that he was further ahead than Lidstrom was at that age in terms of development which is quite different than being as good as Lidstrom. If he could come close to that level though I'd love him on the Avs for the next 15 years anchoring the blue line. He is a solid skater with a solid all around game and is likely to be a top pairing guy for many years. His talent and size on the blueline is very appealing, especially where he would fill a need on the team, however he could be nothing more than a good #2 and is a quieter laid back guy which while not bad isn't a great thing either. His numbers also fell this year and while some say that was because some of his PP time was given to teammates, why would they have been given away and why would they have slipped. They are questions worth asking at least.
The third guy they are looking at is one that I have to admit has shot up the charts and one which I haven't followed closely but has caught my attention, Jonathan Huberdeau. This kid is a taller kid but really needs to add some muscle to his frame to make a difference in the NHL. He also not physical, which is ok but the team definitely lacks that right now, but he is very skilled. Some say he could have the highest offensive ceiling in the draft which really excites me as the team could use a pure goal scorer and he fits that bill. He also is said to have good character and I have really warmed to this possibility. I will definitely be looking closer at him the next few days as the draft nears.
Unlike the slam dunk at #3 with Matt Duchene a couple years ago, this #2 pick has 3 guys that I like and all could be great and all could be good, but none are slam dunks. It is just too bad the Avalanche can't just grab 2 or 3 of the top, top players. With that being said though, if RNH is gone and I were GM, I would select Landeskog though I would entertain offers to move to 3rd or 4th in the draft if I could still get one of these guys and get another asset in return. Huberdeau's offensive ceiling would have me strongly considering him as well though.
Now with the 11th pick things are much more difficult. The Avalanche are hoping that one of their "top 8" falls to them at 11, and given that Fowler fell as far as he did last year and the fact we don't know who their top 8 are it certainly is possible their guy is there. However as an armchair GM it is certainly difficult but fun to have a guy or two you want. Many of them may be gone, or you could be reaching with some, because as is after the first 8 or so the next 30 or 40 picks have certainly been all over the board in draft rankings and mock drafts. Guys like Zibanejad or Strome will likely be gone but I would love to see one of them there at #11, and a guy like Murphy is said to have elite offensive talent from the blueline but little defensive skill so if he dropped to #11 would you take him? For the purposes of this blog though I'm going to touch on a few guys that I think would be good in the Avalanche organization in no particular order.
Nathan Beaulieu is one of the more well rounded defensemen in the draft. He will likely be a solid second pairing type guy at the next level that can be counted on in all situations, however he could develop into a top pairing guy or fall short but should still be an NHL defender. His offensive upside is questioned by some because of lower numbers on a very strong team, but others don't believe that will be an issue. Overall he could be a very good pick but could be gone inside the top 10 but could go anywhere in the middle of the first.
Duncan Siemans is a big tough kid that plays defense. Some question his offensive upside and some think that being top 15 is too high for him while others think around 10th is right. He skates well and is very tough to play against. Could he be the Adam Foote replacement? He might be but again he is one of those players that some see great potential from and some see questions instead.
Mark McNeil is a big kid with a power forward frame. Where his top end is no one is certain and he could be a good 2nd liner or top out as a third liner with size. His style has been compared to Bobby Ryan in some games which would be an excellent choice at #11 but also I have heard some Avs fans who are reminded by Ryan Stoa. While his frame and abilities would lend well to a team needing toughness he more than some seem to be talked about as perhaps not being much more than a third line guy with 2nd line potential. At #11 I would rather take a chance than take a safe 2nd/3rd tweener myself.
Jamie Oleksiak is a defender that has steadily shot up the draft boards over the past year or so. Some question his decision making which is a turn off I'll admit but it could also be that he is still learning. What is so appealing about this kid beyond having a great potential to be a top 4 defender that is well rounded is his size. There is some risk with this pick but at 6'7" he could give some team their mini-Chara if his offense develops and his hockey sense is fine, and what team wouldn't love to have a Chara.
Sven Bartschi is a kid that some mock drafts have in the eleventh spot, however I'm not sold on him and hope the Avs aren't either. He is said to shy away from physical play and his speed isn't the greatest either. He makes me think of how a buy like Svatos would have been described but I don't know how he was his draft year. They predict him as a boom/bust type guy capable of getting great numbers in the NHL or never really making it. I wouldn't have him in my top 15 but the Avs may. He does play wing though which if he hits his potential could be good with guys like Stastny and Duchene able to dish the puck to him.
Rocco Grimaldi is a small guy, very small. Standing just 5'6" he would be one of the smallest players in the league if not the smallest. That being said though, that is the only thing keeping him from being a top 3 pick in the draft this year. His offensive skill is top of the line, right up with the best, and his compete level is great. He is also a great teammate and a hard worker. The kid is a winner but where he goes in the draft is really up in the air because at his size many will worry about durability and effectiveness in the NHL. He could be a reach at #11 but if the Avs could move back, get some assets, and take a chance on him he could really become a steal ... or he could be a bust but he should play in the NHL someday despite his size. Just too much talent not to.
In the end there are certainly a number of players at #11 that the Avalanche will have a chance at. I hope that one of their top 8 falls to them as I trust their opinions but even if they don't there are some good choices there. This does seem a weaker draft looking at it but I'm hoping that the Avalanche get the best of the bunch when it comes to their draft. I'm excited to see who they take and of course I'll become a fan of theirs right away.
Now it has come out of the Colorado offices that they won't move the second pick unless it is substantial, but there are certainly moves that could happen on draft day. The #2 shouldn't move but I wouldn't mind them dropping to 3 or 4 if they think they can still get their guy and pick up another pick or prospect along the way. Maybe something like a trade with Florida for their pick, Vokoun's rights, and a later pick?
The number 11 is certainly going to be in play though. The Avalanche could get offers for that and may be willing to drop back a bit if one of their guys isn't there or they think they can get them a few slots lower while still getting a pick. They may also consider moving up in the draft as well if they can get good value in getting someone they are targeting. It is also very possible that pick could be moved for something else and many have speculated that perhaps the Avalanche could use that pick in a trade for a young goalie with potential like Bernier or Schneider, though those wouldn't be the only pieces of the trade of course.
It should be an exciting draft for fans and I'm ready for it. I would certainly love to be a GM and do this for a living but boy would it be a stressful job trying to predict who is going to turn into what and you will be second guessed forever and a pick that busts could cost you your job. I could give a final opinion with which duo I would like to see the Avalanche come away with but in all reality I will be happy with any of the top four at #2 and then at #11 I would love to see Strome or Zibanejad drop to them but I would like to see them take someone with a ton of potential and take a chance with that pick otherwise.
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